Falcons at Packers

Texans at Colts

Chargers at Bills

Patriots at Jaguars

Bengals at Steelers

Jets at Lions

Chiefs at Dolphins

Seahawks at Commanders

Titans at Giants

Panthers at Browns

Ravens vs. Cowboys (Brazil)

Raiders at Saints

Vikings at Buccaneers

Cardinals at 49ers

Rams at Broncos

Eagles at Bears

As I wrote in the last weekly recap, this matchup screams big Christian Watson game. The Falcons surrendered the third-highest average depth of target (aDOT) of any team last season (8.7), and in Atlanta’s two games this year, Aaron Rodgers and Bryce Young had considerably higher aDOTs than their 2025 averages.

This is notable because both passers ranked near the bottom in terms of aDOT last season.

In Week 3, the Falcons face a quarterback who has not needed an invitation to throw deep. Jordan Love ranked eighth in aDOT in 2025¹ (8.8) and is ninth this year (9.6).²

Assuming this matchup does lead to Love going deep early and often, Watson stands to be the biggest beneficiary; of the 255 players with at least 20 targets since the start of last season, Watson is ninth in aDOT (15.8).

Atlanta is slated to get Michael Penix back for this game, and while he hardly lit the league on fire last season, he did have the lowest interception rate among qualified quarterbacks (1.1%). This is welcome news for Falcons fans after the turnover fest they endured from their quarterbacks last week.

The Atlanta offense is the only one in the league that has yet to have a snap in the red zone.

The Green Bay defense struggled against the run in 2025 but is currently second in success rate allowed on designed runs this season. It remains to be seen whether this marks a real turnaround or just a two-game blip.

The Texans defense appears to have picked up where it left off last season.

The Colts are eighth in success rate on early downs but 25th on late downs.

Neither unit is off to a good start to 2026. The Colts defense ranks 30th in EPA per play, while the Texans offense is 24th.

Houston’s offense got off to a solid start to the season in Week 1 against Buffalo, but looked terrible the following week against the Bengals (who were one of the weakest defenses in 2025).

The Texans at least had the excuse that they were missing their No. 1 wide receiver, Nico Collins, whose status is up in the air for the game against the Colts.

The Bills offense fired on all cylinders in Week 2 against the Lions. It now goes up against one of 2025’s stronger units that has not looked the part in 2026, especially against the pass.

The Los Angeles offense has lost the third-most EPA to turnovers so far in 2026, but this is hardly a case of a snake-bitten unit being undone by bad luck. The Chargers are 28th in passing success rate and 25th in rushing success rate, and have recovered 71% of their own fumbles.

They have also been way more run-heavy in the early going of this season: the Chargers rank 31st in pass rate over expectation (PROE), coming in at minus-10%.³

Through two weeks of 2026, the Steelers have been the best defense in the league in terms of EPA per dropback and rank fourth in dropback success rate allowed.

Pittsburgh’s defense has been worse against the run, ranking 19th in success rate allowed on designed runs in 2026.

The Jets’ streak of games without an interception is now up to 19.

After a disastrous 2025, the Jets offense has looked solid in the early going of 2026; it ranks 18th in EPA per play and 20th in success rate. New York has been better through the air (ninth in EPA per dropback) than on the ground (25th in EPA per designed rush).

Sam Darnold reportedly practiced on Wednesday and split first-team reps with Drew Lock, and the team is slated to make a decision about his status on Friday.

Jameis Winston was the second-worst quarterback in the league in Week 2 in terms of EPA on designed dropbacks,⁴ but should have an easier time against a Titans defense that struggled against the pass in 2025.

If Winston can’t get it done on Sunday, it could be a very long season in New York, now that Jaxson Dart is out for the year.

Year 2 of the Cam Ward era has not been much better than Year 1 so far; Tennessee ranks 28th in EPA per dropback.

This one has all the markings of a shootout; Baltimore’s middling defense will have to contend with the strong Dallas offense on the other side of the ball, while on this one, the atrocious Cowboys defense will have to contend with an efficiency machine.

The Ravens are third in the league in success rate, ranking fifth on dropbacks and first on designed runs.

They currently have a pronounced split between early and late downs (leading the league in the former, while ranking 29th in the latter), but this seems like a sample size fluke. Baltimore has run 103 plays on early downs and just 22 plays on late downs.

The Saints offense has improved across the board so far in 2026 relative to how it performed last year.

Caleb Williams has not been ruled out for this one, but coach Ben Johnson said in a radio appearance that he anticipated his quarterback missing “some time.”

The Eagles offense underwhelmed in 2025 and while it ranks 12th in EPA per play this season, it has had to overcome woeful inefficiency on first and second down to get there: Philadelphia is 26th in EPA per play and last in success rate on early downs.

The Eagles’ early-down passing has not been great (they rank 24th in EPA per dropback with a 0.0), but it has been far better than their early-down rushing (their minus-0.3 EPA per designed run is 30th).

Despite this split, the Eagles have the fourth-lowest pass rate on early downs (excluding the final two minutes of each half), per rbsdm.com.

Philadelphia’s saving grace has been late-down execution from Jalen Hurts, as the Eagles are fourth in late-down success rate.

Perhaps not surprisingly, no team has a bigger gap between their late-down EPA and early-down EPA (+33.6 EPA). This has worked well enough for the Eagles in their opening two games, but getting 450% of your offensive production on 26% of your plays is just not a solid blueprint.

Z-Score: The number of standard deviations a measure is from the mean.

EPA (Expected points added per play): An overall measure of offensive or defensive efficiency. See here for more.

Success (Success rate): The percentage of plays that produce positive EPA.

20+ play: The percentage of plays that gain at least 20 yards.

Turnover: The percentage of plays that end in a turnover.

Pass_OE (Pass rate over expected): The rate of called pass plays minus how often an average team would pass according to a model that takes into account the score differential, field position, down, distance and other factors.

Air Yards (aDOT): Average depth of target, or how far the average pass travels from the line of scrimmage.

Sack (Sack rate): Sacks divided by dropbacks.

QB_hit: Quarterback hits divided by dropbacks.