Falcons 45, Saints 24 (Monday Night Football)

Panthers 32, Lions 26 (Sunday Night Football)

Browns 27, Steelers 24 (Thursday Night Football)

Colts 30, Commanders 13 (London)

Cowboys 34, Texans 30

Patriots 29, Bills 26

Jaguars 22, Bengals 17

Chiefs 30, Raiders 27

Seahawks 30, Chargers 23

Rams 24, Eagles 20

49ers 24, Broncos 14

Ravens 24, Titans 18

Giants 36, Cardinals 24

Bears 23, Jets 12

Vikings 15, Dolphins 10

Packers 17, Buccaneers 14

Buccaneers at Cowboys (Week 5 Thursday Night Football)

In Weeks 1 and 2, with Cooper Rush starting at quarterback, the Falcons were last in the league in EPA per play and 31st in both success rate and yards per play.

In Weeks 3 and 4, with Michael Penix back at the helm after returning from injury, Atlanta leads the league in all three categories.

Atlanta’s defense has been playing well too, ranking eighth in EPA per play, third in success rate and fourth in yards per play.

145 rushing yards on 19 carries (7.6 yards per rush) and two touchdowns for Bijan Robinson; 62 rushing yards on 14 carries (4.4 yards per rush) and three touchdowns for Brian Robinson.

Carolina’s passing game has been in the middle of the pack in terms of efficiency (it ranks 18th in dropback success rate) but is ninth in EPA per dropback thanks in large part to big plays: the Panthers are sixth in 20-plus-yard plays per dropback.

The Lions defense has taken a major step back from last season and has been one of the worst units in the league so far in 2026. Bonus chart alert!

Tetairoa McMillan had a huge night in Jalen Coker’s absence, earning 16 targets and catching 14 of them for 192 yards and two touchdowns. He had a 41% target share.

Welcome to 2026, Jameson Williams.

Pittsburgh was the better team from scrimmage, with a roughly two-point net edge in terms of offensive EPA; however, Cleveland had a +5 EPA margin on special teams.

Browns kicker Andre Szmyt was 2-for-2 on field goals, with makes from 44 yards and 56 yards out. His counterpart on the Steelers, Chris Boswell, made a kick from 31 yards out, but missed a 48-yarder.

Aaron Rodgers had a good night throwing the ball but gave a ton of the value produced on those throws back on five sacks.

The Steelers were 4-for-13 on third down (they did not go for it on any of their fourth downs).

This wound up being a rather comfortable win for the Colts, but things were tight in the first half, with Indianapolis needing a 48-yard Spencer Shrader field goal as time expired in the second quarter to go ahead 10-6.

The Colts picked off Athan Kaliakmanis (who came into the game in relief of an injured Marcus Mariota, who himself was starting in place of the injured Jayden Daniels for the second straight week) on the first possession of the third quarter to set up Jonathan Taylor’s second touchdown of the day, which helped get them some daylight.

Daniel Jones threw an interception and lost his third fumble in the last two weeks. He has now lost 32 fumbles in his career, tied for the most in the league since his rookie season in 2019 (with Josh Allen, who has appeared in 33 more games than Jones over this span).

Can you tell Washington had to play its third-string quarterback for most of the game?

The Colts passing game also wasn’t very good on the non-turnover plays. Jones had a paltry average depth of target (aDOT) of 3.8, yet was also very inefficient on his short throws.¹

Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis running game came to the rescue, as the Colts managed a 57% success rate (95th percentile since 2023) and 0.28 EPA per rush (94th percentile) on designed runs.

Taylor ran for 95 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries, averaging 4.8 yards per rush with a 55% success rate. He was also targeted four times but only managed one catch.

The Texans averaged 0.42 EPA per dropback and a 60% dropback success rate; on the ground, they were held to minus-0.28 EPA per rush with a 22% success rate.

Despite this, Houston actually had a negative pass rate over expectation (PROE), posting a mark of minus-1.2%.

Nico Collins returned to action after missing the previous two weeks; he caught seven of eight targets for 118 yards and two touchdowns. He had a 31% target share.

CeeDee Lamb caught 17 of 21 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown.

Javonte Williams scored three touchdowns and ran for 62 yards on 19 carries. He also caught all five passes thrown his way.

The Patriots won in Buffalo for the second straight season, pulling off a win they will obviously hope can get them back on track after a shaky start to the season.

Buffalo ended up with a 54th-percentile performance in EPA per dropback despite the very poor success rate. The Bills did so thanks to five 20-plus-yard pass plays and an efficient day on late downs.

The Bills had eight successes on 27 early-down dropbacks (30% success rate), and six successes on 11 late-down dropbacks (55%).

This performance is a microcosm of Buffalo’s season so far; Josh Allen is 24th in dropback success rate (41%) but is second in 20-plus-yard plays per dropback.² On just late downs, Allen is fifth in success rate (54%).³

In Drake Maye’s first three games, he threw for one touchdown with six interceptions and nine sacks while averaging 7.3 yards per throw.

On Sunday, he maintained his yards-per-throw average (269 yards on 37 throws), but threw three touchdowns with an interception and a sack.

TreVeyon Henderson had 14 rushes to Rhamondre Stevenson’s 13, with both getting a carry on a goal-to-go play. These two carries were not equal though, as Henderson’s goal-to-go rush came from the 8-yard line, while Stevenson’s came at the goal line itself (he scored on it).

Stevenson was also the more efficient of the two backs, as he managed a 54% rushing success rate, while Henderson was at 36%. Stevenson also managed five targets to Henderson’s two.

Two Joe Burrow interceptions cost the Bengals about 11 expected points.

Jacksonville’s defense leads the NFL in takeaways per drive (21.6%).

Ja’Marr Chase left the game in the second quarter with a concussion and Tee Higgins left the game in the fourth with a leg injury. As a result, Dohnte Meyers led Cincinnati with 54 routes run, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke.

Note that the turnover row only includes turnovers on offense, so it doesn’t take into account the kickoff Las Vegas fumbled in the fourth quarter.

Las Vegas had a minus-4% PROE despite averaging 0.25 EPA per dropback and minus-0.27 EPA per designed rush.

Kenneth Walker (177 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries) continues to provide the explosiveness the Chiefs running game was sorely lacking in 2025.

Kansas City had two designed runs gain at least 20 yards last season. Walker had three on Sunday alone. The Chiefs lead the league with six such runs in 2026 and their rate of 20-plus-yard runs is also first (they were last in both regards in 2025).

Seattle’s inability to move the chains on third down kept Los Angeles in the game. The Seahawks were just 3-for-12 on third down, and did not have a fourth-down attempt. The Chargers were 7-for-17 on late downs.

Justin Herbert threw his fifth and sixth interceptions of the season; only Drake Maye has thrown more. Herbert also lost a fumble.

Even if you set aside the turnovers and control for the strength of the Seahawks defense, this was another poor performance for Justin Herbert, who managed just a 37% success rate on his dropbacks.

Emanuel Wilson ran for 81 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries and also caught three of four targets for 39 yards and another touchdown. He had 21 carries to George Holani’s seven in Jadarian Price’s absence. The routes run were 9-8 in Wilson’s favor (Holani had one target), per Jahnke.

It was a rare quiet afternoon for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who was targeted six times (still good for a 30% target share) and managed five scoreless catches for 76 yards.

What a bizarre game; the Rams had a big edge from scrimmage, largely on the strength of a miserable late-down day from the Eagles.

Philadelphia was 0-for-12 on third down and 1-for-4 on fourth down. Los Angeles was 8-for-18 on late downs.

Philadelphia was nearly 12 expected points better on special teams though, and that helped close the gap. Eagles kicker Jake Elliott was 2-for-2 on field goals (29 yards, 56 yards), while Harrison Mevis made a 40-yarder but missed a 48-yarder. The Eagles also had a 41-yard punt return in the second quarter that brought them into the red zone and set up a touchdown.

I speculated two weeks ago that the Eagles’ reliance on long late-down conversions was not a sustainable path to offensive success but I had no idea they would fall this hard.

On Sunday, the Eagles became the 12th team since 1999 to face at least 16 late downs and only convert once.

This performance comes on the heels of a 2-for-11 performance on late downs in Week 3. Not surprisingly, over the past two weeks, the Eagles are last in conversion rate on late downs (11.1%).

However, in Weeks 1 and 2, Philadelphia was tied for fifth-best in the league here (54.5%).

On early downs for the season as a whole, only the Dolphins and Vikings have a worse mark than the Eagles’ 35.9% success rate.

Oh, and now Saquon Barkley joins DeVonta Smith among the injured Eagles, and tackle Lane Johnson just announced his retirement.

Darius Cooper caught three of seven targets for 33 yards and two touchdowns. Two of these targets came in the end zone. His expected line⁴ was 3.9 catches for 57.4 yards and 1.2 touchdowns.

Kyren Williams ran for 80 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries and caught 10 passes for 67 more yards on a team-high 13 targets.

While Williams took Puka Nacua’s usual place as the most-targeted Ram, Nacua stole a goal-to-go carry and scored on a 2-yard touchdown run. Nacua still had nine catches and 125 yards through the air on 12 targets in his return from injury.

Blake Corum had just five rushes and a pair of targets.

Davante Adams had been feasting in Nacua’s absence, but while the box score might not show it, he was still involved in the offense on Sunday. The veteran was targeted nine times (with one coming in the end zone) with a 15.3 aDOT, but could only convert these into four catches for 32 yards.

The turnover row does not include a Denver fumble on a punt return.

Brock Purdy was most effective on short passes, as San Francisco produced 10.3 EPA on its 18 passes within nine yards of the line of scrimmage and about minus-2 EPA on its 11 throws beyond this range.

Christian McCaffrey’s true expectation should probably be a bit lower, as he was stuffed on a first-down run at the goal line before scoring on his second, inflating his expected touchdown total.

He was also stuffed on a goal-line run earlier in the game, preceding a touchdown throw from Purdy to Deebo Samuel.

No wide receiver, tight end or running back has undershot their fantasy points expectation by more than Courtland Sutton, who could only turn his six targets on Sunday into one catch for four yards.

Sutton has 17.6 point-per-reception points this season (4.4 per game), but based on the quantity and quality of his targets, he would have been expected to score 41.4 (10.4 per game).

He has a 17.6% target share for the season but 33.6% of Denver’s air yards (his aDOT is 11.5). He also has a team-high three end zone targets.

For what it’s worth, Sutton scored 217.7 PPR points last season against 221.6 expected points. He did underperform expectations a bit more in 2024 (235.1 actual points versus 250.1 expected points) but not nearly to the insane degree we’ve seen through four weeks this season.

As the win probability chart indicates, this game was not as close as the final score implies; Tennessee scored a touchdown with 1:12 left in the game to pull within one score.

Another week, another game with Baltimore putting up crazy early-down/late-down splits.

The Giants passing game had above-average production despite a 37th-percentile dropback success rate and two Jameis Winston interceptions, thanks largely to explosiveness: the Giants had five dropbacks gain at least 20 yards (good for a 14% 20-plus-yard play rate that is an 87th-percentile effort).

Winston was 5-for-7 on passes that traveled at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, earning a whopping 16.3 EPA on these throws.

The Bears ran 89 plays versus just 32 for the Jets. This is the kind of thing that can happen when one team is 9-for-18 on late downs and the other is 0-for-7.

Tampa Bay scored touchdowns on both of its red zone trips, while Green Bay was 2-for-3 on opportunities inside the 20; on the one trip that didn’t end in a score, Kaleb Johnson lost a fumble on a rush on 1st & goal from the 3-yard line.

Tampa Bay was able to move the ball with decent efficiency in undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels’ first start.

The Buccaneers did not ask a ton of Daniels, as they were relatively run heavy (minus-6% PROE) and mostly relied on short throws (Daniels only had a 4.2 aDOT). He did throw a pair of interceptions and was sacked three times, but was also efficient on his short passes.

On throws within nine yards of the line of scrimmage, Daniels had a 55% success rate, which is better than the league average of 47.5%. Also, between his six scrambles and two designed runs, he ran for 55 yards.

Daniels was only 2-for-7 on throws between 10 and 19 yards down the field and did not attempt a pass beyond this range.