49ers 23, Commanders 17 (Monday Night Football)

Packers 23, Cowboys 13 (Sunday Night Football)

Broncos 17, Seahawks 14 (OT, Thursday Night Football)

Texans 34, Jaguars 31 (London)

Cardinals 18, Rams 16

Browns 13, Ravens 10

Bills 33, Raiders 30

Titans 26, Colts 20

Patriots 26, Jets 19

Saints 34, Giants 27

Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 (OT)

Bears 31, Falcons 23

Panthers 25, Eagles 14

Chiefs 22, Chargers 6

Brock Purdy’s night was better than the 27th-percentile dropback success rate implies, as the 49ers also had a 78th-percentile performance in terms of 20-plus-yard dropback rate.

Still, overall, it was only a roughly average night for San Francisco in terms of EPA per dropback (0.07), which is all the more surprising given Washington’s previous struggles stopping the pass this season.

The 49ers more than compensated with a monster performance in terms of rushing efficiency, averaging 0.27 EPA per rush with a 67% success rate.

The Packers were 12-for-19 on late downs, while the Cowboys were 7-for-17.

Dallas actually finished with a higher overall success rate (43% to 39%).

The Packers ranked in the 57th percentile in EPA per dropback, as their 36th-percentile passing success rate was at least partially offset by both the late-down conversions and a 71st-percentile performance in terms of 20-plus-yard plays per dropback.

Green Bay averaged 0.1 EPA per dropback, which was still considerably worse than the typical Dallas opponent — the Cowboys are allowing more than 0.3 EPA per dropback this season.

CeeDee Lamb caught 9 of 18 targets for 70 yards and no touchdowns, despite receiving three targets in the end zone.

Seattle lost the turnover battle, 3-0 (two Sam Darnold interceptions and a Rashid Shaheed fumble).

Denver got the win, but this was another ugly game from Bo Nix, who attempted only three passes 10 or more yards downfield.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba can now add “matched his fantasy point expectation¹ down to the decimal point” to the list of cool stuff he’s done this season.

JSN caught 12 of his 16 targets for 134 yards versus an expectation of 10.1 catches, 134.6 yards and 0.3 touchdowns.

Texans dropbacks in four games with Nico Collins: 0.29 EPA per dropback, 54% success rate, 7.4 yards per dropback.

Texans dropbacks in two games without Collins: minus-0.07 EPA per dropback, 43% success rate, 5.2 yards per dropback.

It’s likely there are more things going on here than just Collins returning to the lineup, but given his talent, the lesser status of his fellow pass catchers, and the size of the split, I’m confident it’s at least part of the picture.

Parker Washington had the opportunity to have a big day but could only turn his 11 targets into four catches for 64 yards. Those targets came with a 13.9 average depth of target (aDOT) and one of them came in the end zone.

I recommend Bill Barnwell’s article on what is going wrong with the Rams. Among the issues he discusses are Matthew Stafford’s middling productivity, a lack of big plays on the ground, struggles turning defensive pressures into sacks, and the team’s perennial special teams misadventures.

The Cardinals won despite failing to score a touchdown on any of their five red zone possessions.

Tyler Huntley had an OK day in terms of EPA (0.14 EPA per dropback), but his production was top-heavy. His three highest-yielding throws² produced 10.8 expected points, but his other 31 dropbacks lost Baltimore 6.2 expected points.

The Raiders stayed in the game largely on the strength of a 7-for-12 afternoon on third down.

Another week, another shootout for Buffalo, which ranks first in EPA per play and third in success rate on offense but 30th and 28th in those metrics, respectively, on defense.

The biggest play of the game from both a win probability and expected points framework was a blocked punt that Tennessee returned for a touchdown.

Daniel Jones has faced the third-lowest pressure rate this season according to Pro-Football-Reference, but ranks 17th in sack rate. Last season, he faced the 11th-lowest pressure rate and was 14th in sack rate.

The Colts attempted a relatively low rate of passes less than 10 yards down the field, but these short passes were virtually the only dropbacks where they found success.

Indianapolis produced nearly 17 EPA on its 23 short passes with a 70% success rate; on throws of at least 10 yards, Jones was 4-for-18 (minus-13 EPA). He also took six sacks.

The Jets had a higher success rate than New England (48% to 45%) and won the turnover battle (2-1) but lost the game on high-leverage downs.

The Patriots were 9-for-17 on late downs, while the Jets were 3-for-12. New York also failed to score a touchdown on three red zone trips.

In his return from injury, A.J. Brown earned 10 targets (33% target share) with a 9.9 aDOT. He could only turn this into three scoreless catches for 27 yards.

The Giants lost a fumble on a kickoff, which is not included in the turnover row but is accounted for in the special teams row. Including that fumble, the Giants lost the turnover battle, 4-1. Jameis Winston threw a pair of interceptions, while J.J. McCarthy added one of his own.

McCarthy was considerably better than Winston; the former averaged 0.34 EPA per dropback with a 60% success rate on 20 dropbacks after coming off the bench. Winston averaged minus-0.4 EPA per dropback with a 37% success rate.

The Giants passing game was ultra-concentrated, with Malik Nabers (15 targets), Isaiah Likely (11) and Malachi Fields (8) combining for almost 80% of the team’s targets.

It was a season high for the rookie Fields (who was only able to convert them into two catches), while Nabers and Likely continue to rack up volume.

The Bears defense continued its strong start to the year by containing an Atlanta offense that had been playing well since Michael Penix’s return to action in Week 3.

Speaking of returns, in his first action since Week 2, Caleb Williams averaged 0.27 EPA per dropback with a 57% success rate.

Williams mostly stuck to short passes, as he had only a 3.9 aDOT and 80% of his throws were shorter than 10 yards. Chicago got a lot out of these short passes, though, as they produced over 8 EPA with a 62% success rate.

He also did well on his handful of intermediate-range³ throws, going 4-for-5 on them while adding 8.1 expected points.