Please note that, for the time being, the weekly NFL previews and reviews are going to be web-only and not something that I e-mail out each week. I plan on doing a weekly feature newsletter and don’t want to clog people’s inboxes with too much extra stuff.

Week 7 saw two previously unbeaten teams take their first loss, while Miami got its first win.

The Vikings are now the only team left that can threaten the 1972 Dolphins, while the Chargers are the only team still in play for the league’s first-ever 0-17 season (at least they didn’t lose this week, as Los Angeles was on its bye).

The analysis will be stat-heavy and lean on expected points added (EPA) and success rate (the percentage of plays that produce positive EPA), thanks to data from the indispensable nflverse.

We’ll start as always with the Monday and Sunday night games, since those should be freshest in our minds, before working back to the Thursday nighter, Europe game and finally the Sunday afternoon slate.

Cowboys 38, Eagles 21 (Monday Night Football)

  • 80% of Tanner McKee’s throws were within nine yards of the line of scrimmage1 but the Eagles still struggled with passing efficiency. His average depth of target (aDOT) was just 5.1.

Seahawks 20, Chiefs 3 (Sunday Night Football)

  • The Chiefs did not have a single snap inside the red zone yet still came out ahead in terms of red zone EPA because Seattle was so bad inside the 20. The Seahawks failed to find the end zone on all three of their red zone possessions.

  • The Seahawks were so much better everywhere else that they were still able to hand Kansas City its first loss of the season.

Bears 30, Patriots 24 (Thursday Night Football)

  • The Bears were 6-for-14 on late downs compared to just a 2-for-8 performance for the Patriots.

  • Caleb Williams averaged 0.38 EPA per dropback, combining very strong efficiency with top-tier explosiveness. Eight of Chicago’s 41 pass plays gained at least 20 yards, a 98th-percentile rate.

  • While Chicago’s turnover rate has regressed from its 2025 extremes, the Bears defense has been an outlier in a different area so far this season: they rank 20th in success rate allowed on early downs (43%) but lead the league on late downs (29%).

  • Like the high turnover rate, this split probably isn’t sustainable, but if Williams and the Bears offense can continue to play like this, Chicago won’t need a ton from its defense.

  • Luther Burden III made the most of his opportunities, as he caught all four of his targets and turned them into 130 yards and a touchdown.

Steelers 16, Saints 10 (Stade de France)

Dolphins 28, Jets 25

Browns 27, Titans 24

Lions 20, Packers 17

  • Green Bay struggled to move the ball through the air with any degree of efficiency, but still had an above-average day in terms of EPA per dropback (0.14; 59th percentile) thanks to explosiveness (six plays of 20-plus yards) and sack prevention (one on 46 Jordan Love dropbacks).

Giants 27, Texans 21 (OT)

  • The efficiency wasn’t there in J.J. McCarthy’s first start with the Giants but the explosiveness certainly was; New York had five completions gain at least 20 yards on 31 dropbacks, a 16% rate that is good for the 93rd percentile. This goes a long way in explaining how the Giants managed a 65th-percentile EPA per dropback despite the 7th-percentile dropback success rate (and 18th-percentile sack rate allowed).

  • McCarthy had a high rate of deep pass attempts, but only completed two of his six attempts thrown at least 20 yards down the field. He was most productive in the intermediate range, where he had five successful completions on six throws for 11.8 EPA.

Vikings 16, Colts 10

  • Indianapolis had the higher success rate, but lost the EPA battle due to negative plays (four sacks and the game’s only turnover on a Daniel Jones interception) and an almost complete lack of explosiveness.

  • The Colts’ lone gain of at least 20 yards came on a Jonathan Taylor rush, as Jones did not complete a pass that gained more than 13 yards.

Falcons 29, 49ers 20

  • The 49ers lost the turnover battle, 4-0, explaining why they took their first loss despite a substantial edge in success rate (55% to 48%) and yards per play (6.2 to 4.7). Brock Purdy threw a pair of interceptions, while Kaelon Black and George Kittle lost a fumble apiece.

Broncos 30, Cardinals 16

  • Bo Nix was yet another quarterback who salvaged a rough day of passing efficiency with explosive plays. Nix only completed 15 of 29 passes but averaged 14.8 yards per completion thanks in part to four completions of at least 20 yards. He also had a 62-yard touchdown rush on a scramble.

  • These big plays (and the fact that he only took a single sack) help explain how Denver managed to produce 0.34 EPA per dropback (an 83rd-percentile rate) despite the 17th-percentile passing success rate.

Rams 35, Raiders 21

Bengals 35, Ravens 13

Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13

1  The NFL average is 67.4%.

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