Hello readers and thanks for being here. It’s been great to be writing again and with that in mind, I believe I’ve settled on a publishing cadence that works for me (and hopefully you as well).
My plan is for three feature length posts a week, at least through football season.
A Tuesday post recapping the weekend’s NFL games with infographics
A Wednesday newsletter with a feature article and perhaps some miscellany as well
A Thursday post previewing the upcoming weekend’s NFL games with infographics
I’ve also started posting what I’ve been calling “microposts,” which are essentially short posts similar to what you’d find on a microblogging platform. Ever since the old Twitter fell (RIP old Twitter), I’ve really found the idea of POSSE (or “Publish on your Own Site, Syndicate Elsewhere”) appealing. Rather than having my posts live on someone else’s platform, they live on my own website, where I can then push them out to my various social accounts. This way, even if these platforms close down or enshittify, my stuff is still there.1
The microposts live on the website only; no e-mail for a 300 character post. You can find them by scrolling down on the homepage and the site’s RSS feed (along with everything else published here), in addition to my social accounts (Bluesky, Threads and Mastodon).
With that housekeeping out of the way, let’s preview the remaining Week 1 NFL games (in the future, you can expect more blurbs with the charts, but since we’re close to Sunday, the graphs will have to do for some of these games).
Week 1 Preview
Also, I’ve included a glossary in case some of these metrics are unfamiliar to you or you need a refresher.
Ravens at Colts
When Indianapolis has the ball
These numbers include all of 2025, so for the Colts passing game, those include dropbacks from Philip Rivers and Riley Leonard, as well as Week 1 starter Daniel Jones.
The Ravens allowed a ton of big plays through the air last season, which could mean a nice day for Alec Pierce; his health is a variable, though.
Baltimore’s pass rush struggled in 2025, posting the league’s second lowest sack rate, while also ranking 28th in both pressure rate and ESPN’s pass rush win rate. Somehow though, the Ravens were closer to the middle of the pack in terms quarterback knockdowns, implying they rarely pressured the quarterback, but a lot of these pressures turn into quarterback hits…but very few of these quarterback hits turned into sacks…I don’t get it either.
When Baltimore has the ball
Take the above two images with a grain of salt, especially on the Baltimore side, as they include the games Lamar Jackson missed; the Colts defense, particularly its secondary, wasn’t exactly a model of health either.
Jets at Titans
When Tennessee has the ball
I guess we’ll find out what happens when a stoppable force meets a very movable object?
When New York has the ball
See above re: stoppable forces and movable objects.
Bills at Texans
When Houston has the ball
Buffalo’s defense was a run funnel in 2025. Honestly though, this matchup is way less interesting than what we’ll see on the other side of the ball.
When Buffalo has the ball
Mirror world Jets-Titans: the units are evenly matched, but actually good.
Bears at Panthers
When Carolina has the ball
Few (possible no?) defenses in NFL history were more reliant on forcing turnovers than the 2025 Bears. This is fine when you’re getting those fumbles and interceptions, but turnover rate is notoriously fluky, especially on defense; a high rate one year is no guarantee of a high rate the following year.
If Chicago’s turnover rate does regress to the mean, that might spell disaster; the Bears were below average overall in points allowed per drive even with all the turnovers and the sixth-best starting field position of any defense (due in part to an offense that also ranked highly in turnover rate). On drives that didn’t end in a turnover, Chicago ranked 27th in points allowed per drive, per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell.
It’s obviously not a bad thing the Bears forced all those turnovers, just like it wasn’t a bad thing Spongebob made his friends laugh when he ripped his pants. But as the latter learned, if that’s the only thing you have going for you, things tend not to end well.2
When Chicago has the ball
As mentioned, the Bears offense also ranked highly in turnover rate, but unlike the defense, it actually did well in other areas. Chicago’s ground game was efficient and the passing game was above average in terms of generating big plays and avoiding sacks.
Caleb Williams deserves a ton of credit for the latter improvement, as he went from being the league’s most sacked passer in his rookie season to ranking fourth-best in sack rate in 2025. His next hurdle will be improving his accuracy and getting the passing game to operate more efficiently — his completion percentage over expectation3 was 27th, per rbsdm.com.
Falcons at Steelers
When Pittsburgh has the ball
When Atlanta has the ball
Browns at Jaguars
When Jacksonville has the ball
With Myles Garrett now in Los Angeles, feel free to take Cleveland’s numbers and adjust them downwards when setting your expectations.
When Cleveland has the ball
Buccaneers at Bengals
When Cincinnati has the ball
Please don’t forget these are full season numbers, so they include the games Joe Burrow missed.
When Tampa Bay has the ball
Cardinals at Chargers
The Chargers offense had dramatic splits with and without tackle Joe Alt, who missed 11 regular season games and the playoff loss to New England. Los Angeles ranked third in expected points added per play with him and 26th without, per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell.
When Arizona has the ball
Packers at Vikings
When Minnesota has the ball
Another reminder that these are not 2026 projections, so Minnesota’s numbers reflect the struggles their quarterbacks faced in 2025.
When Green Bay has the ball
Dolphins at Raiders
When Las Vegas has the ball
When Miami has the ball
Commanders at Eagles
When Philadelphia has the ball
When Washington has the ball
Cowboys at Giants
When New York has the ball
When Dallas has the ball
Broncos at Chiefs
When Kansas City has the ball
Reminder that these numbers do not represent 2026 projections but are only a look back at what happened in 2025, so Kansas City’s numbers are weighed down by the games without Patrick Mahomes.
When Denver has the ball
Glossary
Z-Score: The number of standard deviations from the mean a measure is.
EPA (Expected points added per play): An overall measure of offensive or defensive efficiency. See here for more.
Success (Success rate): The percentage of plays that produce positive EPA.
20+ play: The percentage of plays that gain at least 20 yards.
Turnover: The percentage of plays that end in a turnover.
Pass_OE (Pass rate over expected): The rate of called pass plays minus how often an average team would pass according to a model that takes into account the score differential, field position, down, distance and other factors.
Air Yards (aDOT): Average depth of target, or how far the average pass travels from the line of scrimmage.
Sack (Sack rate): Sacks divided by dropback.
QB_hit: Quarterback hits divided by dropback.
1 The protocols behind Mastodon and Bluesky also theoretically address this issue.
2 This is going to be a website/e-mail newsletter that makes references to ‘90s cartoons. Please make your peace with this if you’d like to keep reading.
3 CPOE compares a quarterback’s completion percentage to what a model says an average quarterback would complete, adjusted for depth, direction and other factors. This helps us more accurately compare a quarterback who throws deep often versus one who is constantly throwing check downs — a 65% completion rate for the former would mean something very different from a 65% completion rate for the latter.