To paraphrase Mike Francesa, I can’t believe it’s already Week 4.
As has been the case for the other three weeks, below you can find charts looking at each matchup using advanced stats. What is new for Week 4 is we’ll be using current season data in them for the first time, rather than 2025 numbers.
Thanks as always to the people behind the nflverse project for the data that powers this analysis.
The numbers and rankings below reflect the first three weeks of the season and do not include Thursday night’s game between Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
Week 4
Sunday morning
1pm window
4pm window
Sunday Night Football
Monday Night Football
Also, I’ve included a glossary in case some of these metrics are unfamiliar to you or you need a refresher.
Colts vs. Commanders (London)
When Washington has the ball
The Colts defense has been one of the worst units in the league so far, but it’s possible at least some of their struggles were matchup dependent. Indianapolis had a ton of trouble stopping both Baltimore and Kansas City but looked solid last week against Houston.
When Indianapolis has the ball
It’s not hard to infer why teams have been dropping back so frequently against the Commanders. Washington has struggled badly in terms of stopping the pass but has been one of the league’s better run defenses.
Rams at Eagles
When Philadelphia has the ball
Apparently just getting rid of Kevin Patullo was not enough to get the Eagles offense rolling. Philadelphia has struggled with both efficiency (ranking 28th in success rate) and turnovers.
They’ve been kept somewhat afloat with late-down efficiency, as the Eagles have the 10th-best success rate on third/fourth down, despite having the second-longest average distance needed to move the chains on these plays (8.0 yards to go).
When Los Angeles has the ball
The Rams passing attack has been more boom-or-bust than we might have expected coming into the year. Matthew Stafford is 23rd in completion percentage (60.4%) but tied for fourth in yards per completion (13.0).
The Eagles are one of four defenses without an interception in 2026 (joining the Colts, Cowboys and Jets).
Jaguars at Bengals
When Cincinnati has the ball
The Jaguars were reliant on forcing turnovers in 2025 and while that probably still isn’t a sustainable long-term strategy, it’s worked well enough for them through three weeks.
Jacksonville has allowed the fewest points in the league despite tying for 24th in yards allowed per play (5.8), with the NFL’s second-highest rate of takeaways per drive (21.4%) playing a big role (only the Raiders have been better).
When Jacksonville has the ball
The Bengals defense struggled in Week 3 against Pittsburgh but on the whole, it has been better than expected. Whether that is a result of real improvement or a product of matchups against Tampa Bay and Houston remains to be seen.
Patriots at Bills
When Buffalo has the ball
New England's apparent bend-but-don’t-break approach runs into one of the league’s preeminent big-play offenses.
When New England has the ball
Like a few other teams we have already spoken about, the jury is out as to whether the Patriots’ poor results are more a matter of who they’ve played than who they are. New England opened the season against Seattle, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville.
Jets at Bears
When Chicago has the ball
The Jets defense has now gone 20 consecutive games without an interception.
When the Jets have the ball
Geno Smith leads the NFL in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) with a mark of +10.9%.
Cardinals at Giants
When New York has the ball
Don’t read too much into the Cardinals’ high run defense turnover z-score. Arizona just happens to be the only team in the league with two fumble recoveries on designed runs, while 23 teams don’t have one.
When Arizona has the ball
Cowboys at Texans
When Houston has the ball
Wide receiver Nico Collins practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday and Thursday; the Texans offense has struggled in his two-game absence.
When Dallas has the ball
Big plays through the air have been a problem so far for the otherwise strong Texans defense.
Titans at Ravens
When Baltimore has the ball
When Tennessee has the ball
Packers at Buccaneers
When Tampa Bay has the ball
Jalon Daniels gets the start for a Bucs offense that was struggling even before losing Baker Mayfield to an injury last week.
When Green Bay has the ball
Broncos at 49ers
When San Francisco has the ball
Brock Purdy leads the NFL2 in net yards per attempt (9.5), EPA per dropback (0.67) and touchdown rate (10.8%).
When Denver has the ball
Chiefs at Raiders
When Las Vegas has the ball
The Kansas City pass defense has been one of the league’s better units despite getting little production from its pass rush so far.
When Kansas City has the ball
Chargers at Seahawks
When Seattle has the ball
For whatever it’s worth,3 the Seahawks and Chargers are the only teams in the league with multiple fumbles lost on designed rushes. Seattle’s Jadarian Price and Los Angeles’ Omarion Hampton have lost two apiece.
When Los Angeles has the ball
Dolphins at Vikings
When Minnesota has the ball
This Dolphins defense offers Kyler Murray a heck of an opportunity to get his Vikings career rolling.
When Miami has the ball
Lions at Panthers
When Carolina has the ball
The Carolina passing offense has been more explosive than efficient but this Lions defense could give the Panthers the opportunity to be both on Sunday.
When Detroit has the ball
Falcons at Saints
When New Orleans has the ball
When Atlanta has the ball
The two Cooper Rush starts are still dragging down the Falcons’ numbers here.
We’ll see what Michael Penix Jr. can do for an encore after shredding the Packers defense in his return from injury in Week 3.
Glossary
Z-Score: The number of standard deviations a measure is from the mean.
EPA (Expected points added per play): An overall measure of offensive or defensive efficiency. See here for more.
Success (Success rate): The percentage of plays that produce positive EPA.
20+ play: The percentage of plays that gain at least 20 yards.
Turnover: The percentage of plays that end in a turnover.
Pass_OE (Pass rate over expected): The rate of called pass plays minus how often an average team would pass according to a model that takes into account the score differential, field position, down, distance and other factors.
Air Yards (aDOT): Average depth of target, or how far the average pass travels from the line of scrimmage.
Sack (Sack rate): Sacks divided by dropbacks.
QB_hit: Quarterback hits divided by dropbacks.
1 Only Tampa Bay has faced a longer average distance on late downs (8.7).
2 Among quarterbacks who have made multiple starts.
3 I don’t think very much.