(Matthew McConaughey car commercial voice) I’ve been making these charts way before I started this newsletter. I find them to be a helpful way to get an overview of the upcoming games and like to have them handy when watching.
So even though I was away this week with my family, now that I’m back, I definitely wanted to prioritize generating them. That said, the time constraints mean I didn’t have the time to include the blurbs that add some context to the numbers.
Hopefully you’ll find something to be better than nothing.
Thanks as always to the people behind the nflverse project for the data that powers this analysis.
Sunday morning
1 p.m. window
4 p.m. window
Sunday Night Football
Monday Night Football
Bye weeks: Bengals, Lions, Dolphins, Vikings
Also, I’ve included a glossary in case some of these metrics are unfamiliar to you or you need a refresher.
Texans vs. Jaguars (London)
When Jacksonville has the ball
When Houston has the ball
Bears at Falcons
When Atlanta has the ball
When Chicago has the ball
Ravens at Browns
When Cleveland has the ball
When Baltimore has the ball
Titans at Colts
When Indianapolis has the ball
When Tennessee has the ball
Jets at Patriots
When New England has the ball
When the Jets has the ball
Saints at Giants
When the Giants has the ball
When New Orleans has the ball
Panthers at Eagles
When Philadelphia has the ball
When Carolina has the ball
Steelers at Buccaneers
When Tampa Bay has the ball
When Pittsburgh has the ball
Cardinals at Rams
When the Rams has the ball
When Arizona has the ball
Chargers at Chiefs
When Kansas City has the ball
When the Chargers has the ball
Bills at Raiders
When Las Vegas has the ball
When Buffalo has the ball
Cowboys at Packers
When Green Bay has the ball
When Dallas has the ball
Commanders at 49ers
When San Francisco has the ball
When Washington has the ball
Glossary
Z-Score: The number of standard deviations a measure is from the mean.
EPA (Expected points added per play): An overall measure of offensive or defensive efficiency. See here for more.
Success (Success rate): The percentage of plays that produce positive EPA.
20+ play: The percentage of plays that gain at least 20 yards.
Turnover: The percentage of plays that end in a turnover.
Pass_OE (Pass rate over expected): The rate of called pass plays minus how often an average team would pass according to a model that takes into account the score differential, field position, down, distance and other factors.
Air Yards (aDOT): Average depth of target, or how far the average pass travels from the line of scrimmage.
Sack (Sack rate): Sacks divided by dropbacks.
QB_hit: Quarterback hits divided by dropbacks.